The final Gallup poll forecasts a wave of historic proportions. Rasmussen does as
well. But a national wave won’t get out the vote here in California’s
11th District; we need to do that ourselves. And our work is far from done. Just
this morning, National Journal’s Hotline
Attorney David Harmer (R) was in a very strong position earlier this fall, but the
DCCC — which pumped 10 times the cash the NRCC did into this district in the
last week — is making sure McNerney is given every opportunity to survive.
Even so, most forecasts remain encouraging. RealClearPolitics
and Larry Sabato continue to rank us as Leans Republican. NPR’s Ken Rudin
predicts only a 41-seat gain for Republicans, much lower than other forecasters,
but still has us winning CA-11. The Election Oracle at the
Daily Beast (hardly a hotbed of conservative thought) joins
FiveThirtyEight at the New York Times
in giving us a 70% chance of winning.
Perhaps the most accurate forecasts come from veteran political analysts Charlie
Cook and Stu Rothenberg, both of whom rank our race as a pure toss-up. That means
that victory will go to whichever campaign does the best job of getting its supporters
to the polls.
Bottom line: We can win. We
should win. But whether we will
win depends on you.
Shortly after taking the oath of office as first President of the United States,
George Washington said:
The preservation of the sacred fire of liberty, and the destiny of the Republican
model of Government, are justly considered as deeply, perhaps as finally staked,
on the experiment entrusted to the hands of the American people.
That experiment is now in your hands. Rise to the challenge. Come to the nearest
office tomorrow — Stockton, Pleasanton, or Danville — to walk a precinct.
If you can’t give time, give money; we’re still raising funds. And if
you can’t give time or money, recruit someone who can. It’s now or never.
David Harmer is the Republican nominee for the U.S. House of Representatives from
California’s 11th District. His father, John Harmer, served as Lieutenant
Governor under Ronald Reagan. Early in his career, David took his expertise in constitutional
law to Pacific Legal Foundation, where he defended property rights and other freedoms.
David was also a Resident Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, and his book on education
reform was published by the Cato Institute.
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has named David a “Young
Gun”—the top status in their candidate rating system. This top-target
designation assures that the 11th District will be a national congressional battleground.